We recreated 9,939,486 real Bustabit rounds from public data and tested them. The results fit Bustabit’s published maths, no pattern a predictor could use showed up, and every script we tested lost money overall. The numbers and the steps to check them are below.
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Rounds checked
9,939,486
Real payback at 2x
98.95%
Instant 1.00x busts
1.98%
Biggest round
13,239,239x
The 30-second version
Bustabit takes a 1% house edge, written into its formula. In the rounds we recreated, half crashed at 1.97x or less. After 5 rounds under 2x in a row, the next round still reached 2x 49.62% of the time.
Martingale at 2x went bust in 29.7% of our 5,000-round sessions. Both hash chains landed exactly on the hashes Bustabit published before play started. About 2.28 million rounds from 2024 to 2025 could not be recreated, so we left them out.
🔮 No Bustabit predictor can work: 2x came about 49.5% of the time after any losing run
No Bustabit predictor can work, because past rounds do not change the next one. In all 9,939,486 Bustabit rounds we recreated, the next round reached 2x about 49.5% of the time. That held after 0, 5 or 10 rounds under 2x in a row. Bustabit’s own maths says 49.5%.
Players call a round under 2x a red round. Many predictor apps say a long red run means a big round is “due”. Here is what really came next.
The chance stays near 49.5% however long the red run gets. The rows for 8 and 10 move about a bit more only because those runs happened far less often. Fewer cases means more random wobble, in both directions.
Waiting for a “due” 10x does not help
- 0 to 24 rounds since the last 10x: the next round reached 10x 9.89% of the time.
- 25 to 49 rounds since: 9.87%.
- 50 to 99 rounds since: 9.82%.
- 100 or more rounds since: only 350 cases, too few to read.
A long gap did not make a 10x more likely. We also checked the round after a big one. After a 10x or more, the next round reached 2x 49.44% of the time. After a round under 1.5x, it was 49.45%.
The link between one round’s result and the next was -0.0002. That is zero. One round tells you nothing about the next. Our guide to crash game patterns explains why streaks look meaningful when they are not.
Why the Bustabit hash chain rules prediction out
Every Bustabit round comes from a hash: a long code made by the SHA-256 formula. Bustabit made the whole chain of hashes years in advance and published the last one. The chain is played backwards: each new round uses the hash that was made just before the previous round’s hash.
Once a round is over, its hash is shown. You can check it links to the round before. But to work out the next round’s hash, you would need to run SHA-256 in reverse. No one can do that, with any computer.
⚠️ Predictor apps and “hash readers” cannot see future Bustabit rounds. They only see rounds that have already finished. Our guide to crash game predictor scams shows how these apps take your money.
🤖 Every Bustabit script we tested lost money on the real history
Every Bustabit script we tested lost money in total when we ran it on real past Bustabit rounds. We split the real history into 1,987 sessions of 5,000 rounds and ran six betting scripts on each. The best payback was 99.01%, for a 1.1x grind, and that grind still lost 988,374 bits overall.
If you want a Bustabit strategy or script that beats the edge, this is the test that matters. These are real rounds that were played, not random simulations.
- 1,987 sessions of 5,000 rounds each, back to back, with no overlap.
- Start: 10,000 bits and a 1 bit base bet.
- Bust: the script’s next bet was bigger than the balance left.
The six scripts
- Flat 2x: bet 1 bit every round, cash out at 2x.
- Flat 10x: bet 1 bit every round, cash out at 10x.
- Martingale 2x: cash out at 2x, double the bet after each loss.
- Martingale 3x: cash out at 3x, bet 1.5 times as much after each loss.
- Wait 5: wait for 5 rounds under 2x, then play Martingale at 2x.
- Grind 1.1x: bet 10 bits every round, cash out at 1.1x.
“Ended up” means the session finished with more than 10,000 bits. Martingale looks good on that column. The next table shows the middle session and the total across all 1,987 sessions.
All figures are in bits. The middle session is the median: half of the sessions ended above it and half below. Every total is a loss. Here is how much each script paid back for every 100 bits it bet:
Grind 1.1x
99.01%
Flat 2x
98.95%
Martingale 3x
98.93%
Flat 10x
98.87%
Martingale 2x
98.78%
Wait 5
95.99%
Martingale wins small, then 3 in 10 sessions lose most of it
Martingale means you double your bet after every loss. When you finally win, you get back all your losses plus 1 bit. Then you go back to 1 bit. Most of the time this works, which is why Martingale 2x ended up in 70.3% of sessions.
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The problem is a long run of losses. Each loss doubles the next bet, so the bets grow very fast. In the rounds we recreated, the longest run under 2x was 21 rounds. In 29.7% of sessions, the next bet grew bigger than the balance, and the script was out.
💡 Key point
About 3 in 10 Martingale sessions lost almost the whole 10,000 bits. Those losses paid for all the small wins and more. Martingale 2x lost 698,840 bits in total.
Our Martingale guide for crash games goes through the maths. You can watch it happen with your own numbers in the Martingale simulator.
Waiting for 5 red rounds first only means betting less
The wait-5 script went bust in only 1.6% of sessions. That is not because waiting works. It is because the script bet in far fewer rounds.
After 5 rounds under 2x, the next round reached 2x 49.62% of the time, the same as any other round. When wait-5 did go bust, it lost big. Its payback, 95.99%, was the worst of all six scripts.
📊 Bustabit statistics: 9,939,486 real rounds against the theory
Bustabit’s real results fit its published maths. Across 9,939,486 Bustabit rounds, 49.48% reached 2x against 49.5% in theory, and 1.98% were instant 1.00x busts, exactly the theory figure. Cashing out at 2x every round paid back 98.95%, against 99% in theory.
The theory is simple. The chance of reaching any multiplier is 0.99 divided by that multiplier. So 2x comes 49.5% of the time and 100x comes 0.99% of the time. The middle result, the median, was 1.97x: half of all rounds crashed at or below it.
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We also ran a standard fit test (chi-square) over 16 multiplier bands. The scores were p = 0.14 for 2018 to 2024, p = 0.32 for 2025 to 2026, and p = 0.09 combined. All three fit the published maths.
📝 For the record: The 1,000x to 2,000x band came in a little low: 4,697 rounds against 4,920 expected. Once you allow for checking 16 bands across two time periods, that is within normal chance. Those outcomes were fixed before the salt was known.
The biggest Bustabit rounds
The longest runs in the rounds we recreated
Under 2x in a row
21
Instant busts in a row
4
Rounds with no 100x
1,410
Rounds with no 1,000x
8,242
A run of 21 rounds under 2x can bust a Martingale script that starts with 10,000 bits and a 1 bit bet. Martingale 2x from 1 bit with 10,000 bits is out after 13 losses in a row, because the next bet (8,192 bits) is bigger than what is left.
Try next
📊EtherCrash TestedThe same test on 2,258,947 real EtherCrash rounds.Read →🚀Rollbit X-Crash Tested2,126,892 real Rollbit rounds checked, and all 20 sampled rounds passed our proof check.Read →
🎮Bustabit Game GuideHow Bustabit works, its 1% edge, bankroll investing and limits.Read →
🔐Provably Fair ExplainedHow hash chains and salts lock in results before you bet.Read →
✅Provably Fair VerifierPaste a round’s hash and check its result yourself.Open →
📘Strategy for BeginnersStake sizes, cash-out targets and limits that make sense.Read →
⚖️ Is Bustabit legit? The results we recreated fit what Bustabit published in advance
On fairness, the 9,939,486 Bustabit rounds we recreated fit what Bustabit promised. Both hash chains landed exactly on the hashes Bustabit published in advance. All 40+ rounds we compared with Bustabit’s live game pages matched. The results fit the published maths.
People searching “Bustabit scam” usually want to know if the game is rigged against them. In the rounds we checked, we found no sign of that. The results fit a 1% house edge, as Bustabit says.
📝 What this test does not cover: deposits, withdrawals, customer support or the company behind Bustabit. We did not test any of those. We also did not check about 2.28 million rounds from 26 February 2024 to 6 October 2025, for the reason given below.
This page is a fairness test, not a full Bustabit review. For how the game, the bankroll and the limits work, see our Bustabit game guide.
🔍 How we rebuilt the Bustabit history, step by step
We rebuilt the Bustabit history from two public hash chains and two Bitcoin block salts, then ran Bustabit’s own formula on every hash. Anyone can repeat it. The work covers 9,939,486 rounds in two time periods, up to 3 October 2026.
Era 1 is 8,535,716 games. Era 2 is 1,403,770 games, starting at 17:23 on 6 October 2025. Game numbers #8,535,717 to #10,000,000 were never used. The numbering jumped when the new chain started.
Get the salts
Era 1 uses Bitcoin block 505750 as its salt. Bustabit named the block on BitcoinTalk on 23 January 2018, before it was mined that same day. The salt is 0000000000000000004d6ec16dafe9d8370958664c1dc422f452892264c59526
Era 2 uses block 917000. Bustabit named it on BitcoinTalk on 27 September 2025, and it was mined on 30 September 2025. The salt is 00000000000000000001e08b7fd44f95e3e950ac65650a8031a6d5e1750e34be
Rebuild both hash chains
The era 1 chain has 10 million SHA-256 hashes. Each one is the SHA-256 of the previous hash written as text. It ends on 86728f5fc3bd99db94d3cdaf105d67788194e9701bf95d049ad0e1ee3d004277
The era 2 chain has 100 million hashes and was published in February 2024. Each one is the SHA-256 of the previous hash’s raw bytes. It ends on 567a98370fb7545137ddb53687723cf0b8a1f5e93b1f76f4a1da29416930fa59. Both chains landed exactly on these published hashes.
Work out each result
Mix each game hash with the salt using HMAC-SHA256. Take the first 13 characters and turn them into a number X between 0 and 1. The result is floor(99 / (1 − X)) / 100, never lower than 1.00x. The 99 is the 1% house edge.
Check against Bustabit’s live pages
We compared more than 40 rounds with Bustabit’s live game pages, including random picks from both eras. Every one matched. The biggest was game #20,882 on 2 February 2018, at 13,239,239.65x.
Run it twice
A second program, written separately, worked out every result again. It got identical numbers.
This short Node.js script works out one Bustabit result. It is set up with the hash of game #20,882, so it prints 13239239.65x. Swap in any other game hash from Bustabit’s game page. The salt shown is the era 1 salt; swap in the era 2 salt for games from 6 October 2025 on.
const crypto = require('crypto');
const salt = '0000000000000000004d6ec16dafe9d8370958664c1dc422f452892264c59526';
const hash = '24c9b51c72d2e7766124ca1c0f0b72212b24262664a7a4f0da8e4cb500a84254';
const hmac = crypto.createHmac('sha256', salt);
hmac.update(Buffer.from(hash, 'hex'));
const hex = hmac.digest('hex').slice(0, 13);
const r = parseInt(hex, 16);
let result = Math.floor(99 / (1 - r / 2 ** 52)) / 100;
if (result < 1) result = 1;
console.log(result.toFixed(2) + 'x');🔍 The 2024 to 2025 rounds
From 26 February 2024 to 6 October 2025, about 2.28 million rounds also used a signature from a third-party service called Vx (ActuallyFair). Those results cannot be recreated from the hash chain and salt alone, so we did not check them.
Bustabit said on BitcoinTalk in September 2025 that the service was shutting down, and switched back to the classic method. This gap is not a finding against anyone.
Sources
Data checked 3 October 2026.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Can a Bustabit script beat the house edge?
No. All six scripts we ran on 1,987 real sessions lost money in total. Their payback ran from 95.99% to 99.01%. A script changes how often you win, not how much you get back over time.
Can anyone see the next Bustabit hash?
No. Each round’s hash is shown only after the round ends. Finding the next one would mean running SHA-256 in reverse, which no one can do. Predictor apps cannot see it either.
How big was the biggest Bustabit multiplier?
In the rounds we checked, it was 13,239,239.65x, in game #20,882 on 2 February 2018. The biggest since 6 October 2025 was 549,771.79x, in game #12,291,425.
How big is Bustabit’s house edge?
1%. It is written into the formula as the 99 in floor(99 / (1 − X)) / 100. In the real rounds, cashing out at 2x every time paid back 98.95%, against 99% in theory.
👉 Keep going
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