This calculator runs 3,000 sessions of one plan: flat bet at a fixed target until you either reach a profit goal (+25%, +50%, +100% or +200% of the starting bankroll) or bust. It returns the chance of hitting the goal, the chance of ruin, the share still running at the round cap, session length, expected loss per 100 rounds, and what a fair game would give. It is for anyone who plays to a target like “double it and stop”.
Crash Game Risk of Ruin Calculator
If you keep flat-betting until you either hit your profit goal or go bust, what are your odds? Simulates 3,000 sessions in your browser.
Typical crash games run 1% to 4%. Win chance per round = (1 - edge) / target.
| Goal | Target bankroll | Hit goal | Bust | Fair-game reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +25% | … | … | … | … |
| +50% | … | … | … | … |
| +100% | … | … | … | … |
| +200% | … | … | … | … |
Method: Monte Carlo, 3,000 sessions (1,500 per row in the comparison table). Each round wins with probability (1 - edge) / target and pays bet x (target - 1); otherwise the bet is lost. A session stops when the bankroll reaches the goal or drops below one bet, or at the max-rounds guard. The fair-game reference is bankroll / (bankroll + goal profit), the exact gambler's-ruin answer for even-money bets with no edge; it is a rough guide only for other targets. Results vary a little from run to run; that is the simulation, not a bug.
🔢 How to read the results
The three headline shares add to 100%: sessions that hit the goal, sessions that busted, and sessions still going when the round cap was reached. The still-playing share is not a good outcome. Those sessions are, on average, below their starting bankroll and still paying the edge every round. The median and average round counts tell you how long a session of this plan tends to last, which is useful when the goal is small and the plan looks safe.
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The fair-game reference is the comparison to hold on to. For even-money bets with no edge, the chance of gaining G before losing B is B/(B + G): 66.7% for a +50% goal. The gap between that figure and the simulated result is the cost of the edge on this plan, and it is far larger than 3% suggests. The bankroll management guide explains why the gap grows with the number of rounds the plan needs.
💡 Key insight
At a 3% edge, €/$100 bankroll, €/$1 bets at 2x and a +50% goal, a fair game gives 66.7% and the real game gives about 5%. The edge per round is 3 cents. The plan needs hundreds of rounds to move €/$50 in either direction, and 3 cents a round for hundreds of rounds is what turns a two-thirds chance into a one-in-twenty chance.
📊 The maths behind it
The simulator plays each session round by round: win with probability (1 – edge)/target and gain bet × (target – 1), otherwise lose the bet, until the bankroll reaches the goal or zero. For a 2x target the classic gambler’s ruin formula gives the exact answer without simulation. With p = 0.485, q = 0.515, B units of bankroll and G units of goal, the chance of reaching the goal is (1 – (q/p)^B) divided by (1 – (q/p)^(B + G)).
Worked example: €/$100 bankroll, €/$1 bets at 2x, 3% edge, so q/p = 1.0619. (q/p)^100 is about 403 and (q/p)^150 is about 8,100, so the chance of reaching +50% is 402/8,099, which is 4.96%.
The last column is the surprise. Betting €/$5 instead of €/$1 from the same €/$100 raises the chance of hitting +50% from 5% to about 46%, because the plan needs far fewer rounds and the edge gets fewer chances to act. Bust arrives faster too, and the expected loss per round is five times higher. The bet sizing guide works through that trade.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It assumes you stop at the goal. Most players who reach +50% keep playing, and a plan that never stops has a ruin probability of 100% at any negative edge. The session management guide is about making the stop happen. It also fixes the target for the whole session; changing the target changes the streak lengths and the round count but not the direction of the answer.
It cannot make the plan positive. The best it can do is find the bet size and goal at which the ruin chance is one you accept, which is a decision about entertainment budget, not about beating the game. Why no plan of this kind works is set out in the article on beating crash games, and the bankroll simulator shows the same money over a fixed number of rounds instead.
The bottom line: A stop-at-profit plan is a bet that variance will carry you to the goal before the edge carries you to zero. The smaller the bet relative to the goal, the more rounds it takes and the more the edge wins. Bigger bets give you a better chance of the goal and a faster bust, at a higher cost per round. Neither setting changes the sign.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Why is my chance of doubling so far below 50%?
Because doubling €/$100 at €/$1 a bet needs hundreds of rounds, and every round costs 3 cents in expectation. The gambler’s ruin formula at 3% edge gives 0.25% for a +100% goal from 100 units, against 50% in a fair game. The small per-round edge compounds over the long path to the goal.
Does betting bigger help?
It raises the chance of reaching the goal and lowers the chance of a long, slow bust, because there are fewer rounds for the edge to act on. It also raises the expected loss per round and makes the bust, when it comes, quick. The average result across all sessions stays negative at every bet size.
What does still playing mean?
Sessions that had neither reached the goal nor busted when the round cap was hit. They are usually below the starting bankroll at that point. If the still-playing share is large, the goal and bet size are producing very long sessions, and raising the round cap will move most of them into the bust column.
Is there a bankroll size that makes the plan safe?
No. A larger bankroll with the same goal in percentage terms needs proportionally more units of profit, so the gambler’s ruin figure gets worse, not better. A larger bankroll relative to the bet only helps if the goal is fixed in money rather than as a percentage.