This simulator plays the Martingale for you: double the bet after every loss, go back to the starting bet after a win, cash out at a fixed target. Fill in Starting bet, Starting bankroll, Cash out at and Rounds per player. House edge and Max bet limit are under “More settings (optional)”. Watch one test player’s money move round by round. Then read the result for a batch of up to 1,500 test players using the same plan. It is for anyone who has been told the Martingale cannot lose.
Martingale Crash Game Simulator
Set up a doubling plan (called Martingale) and see what the house edge does to it over thousands of rounds. This shows what to expect on average. It is not betting advice.
Your plan
One test player, round by round
Press Run the test for another player. In the short run, results swing up and down. Over time, the house edge always pulls your money down.
The odds behind your settings
How the bet grows after each loss
| Losses in a row | Bet amount | Total lost so far | Next bet to win it back | Money left |
|---|
This tool uses the same odds most crash games use, with the house edge you set. Real games and casinos can differ a little. Whatever plan you use, the house edge means you lose money over time.
🔢 How to read the results
Read the summary box first. It shows how many test players finished down, how many went broke, and the average loss across all of them. Below it is a chart for one test player. The line usually climbs slowly, one starting bet at a time. Then it drops fast when a losing run gets so long that the next bet is above the bet limit or above the money left. The dashed line is the starting bankroll, so anything under it is a loss. If the line hits zero, that player is broke. A line under the chart says how that player finished.
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The stat cards show that player’s final balance, profit or loss, longest losing streak, biggest bet, how many times the bet limit was hit, and rounds played. Press “Show the maths” to open the table “How the bet grows after each loss”. It has one row for each number of losses in a row. It shows the total lost so far, the next bet needed to win it back, and the money left. The plan ends at the first row where the next bet is above the bet limit or above the money left. The notes under the table say how often you can expect 5, 8, 10 or more losses in a row.
💡 Key insight
The Martingale converts many small wins into rare large losses. It does not change the average. On average, every bet it places loses the bet size times the house edge. So the average result per round across 1,500 test players is the same as betting the same total amount at one fixed bet size. The full argument, with the maths for each variant, is in the Martingale guide.
📊 The maths behind it
After k straight losses the next bet is starting bet × 2^k, and the total lost in the run so far is starting bet × (2^k − 1). A win at a 2x target pays back the whole run plus one starting bet. The chance of k losses in a row at a target M and house edge e is (1 − (1 − e)/M)^k. At 2x and a 3% house edge that is 0.515^k.
Worked example: $1 starting bet, $100 bankroll, 2x target, 3% house edge, $100 bet limit:
The bankroll runs out first. After six losses the plan wants $64 and only $37 remains, so a six-loss run costs $63 and ends the plan. Six losses at 2x happen once in every 54 runs. Each completed run wins $1, so on average you get about 53 wins of $1 and then one loss of $63. That is a net loss, and it is the same net loss the house edge would have taken from $1 bets of a fixed size over the same total amount.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It cannot tell you when the losing run will arrive, only that it will. A player can run the plan for an evening and finish up $40, which is why the method survives. The streak calculator gives the odds of the run at any threshold. It also does not model per-game maximum bets, which vary by operator and are often lower than the bet limit you type; the real cap is whatever the game’s bet field refuses.
It says nothing about the alternatives being better. The anti-Martingale, D’Alembert and Fibonacci progressions change the size and timing of the losses again, and none of them touches the average. The bankroll simulator shows what flat betting the same money looks like for comparison.
The bottom line: The Martingale in a crash game is a plan for losing $63 once in every 54 attempts to win $1. The bet limit and the bankroll decide when it fails, and the house edge decides that it does. If you want to see the plan work, run it for 100 rounds. If you want to see it fail, run it for 1,000.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Does the Martingale beat the house edge?
No. Every bet it places loses money on average, the same as any other bet of that size. Adding losing bets together cannot give you a winning average. What it does is rearrange the outcomes: many small wins, then one loss the size of the whole run. Over enough rounds the average loss is the bet size times the house edge.
Why do most simulated players finish ahead while the average is negative?
Because the losses are rare and large. In a 200-round batch most players never meet the six-loss run and finish a few units up. The ones who do meet it lose 63 units at once. The minority’s losses outweigh the majority’s wins, and the average comes out at the house edge.
Does a lower target make the Martingale safer?
It makes losing runs shorter and the bust rarer per run, but each win is smaller, so the plan needs more runs to earn the same amount and the house edge gets more rounds to work. At 1.5x the doubling still climbs, the run still ends at the bankroll, and the average is still a loss of the bet size times the house edge.
What bet limit should I enter?
The maximum bet the game will accept at your operator, which is usually shown in the bet field or the game’s info panel. If you do not know it, leave the default and watch the Money left column in the table instead. With a starting bet at 1% of the bankroll, the money runs out at the seventh bet, whatever the bet limit is.
👉 Keep going
Three things worth a tap next. Everything here uses free play money only.
Crash gambling and harm. 18+, play responsibly.