This calculator shows what each choice is worth on the Cash or Crash ladder. Pick the level you are on and your stake. It shows the chance the next ball is red, what Take All (cashing out) pays now, what the next level pays, and what one more ball is worth on average. It also shows your chance of reaching each level, and the full 20-level pay table. It is for anyone playing Evolution’s live crash game who wants to see the numbers before they cash out or play on.
Cash or Crash Ladder Calculator: What the Next Ball Is Worth
Pick the level you are on. See the real odds of the next ball, what Take All pays now, and what one more ball is worth on average. The maths uses the 28-ball machine (19 green, 8 red, 1 gold). A ball that comes out does not go back in, just like in the game.
| Level | Take All pays | Next ball red | Reach from here | One more ball, on average | vs cashing out now |
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"One more ball, on average" is the chance the next ball moves you up (green or gold, out of the balls still in the machine) times what the next level pays. It treats the gold ball as a normal step up and leaves out the shield and the bigger pay table that come with it, so it makes playing on look a little worse than it is. The table uses the normal pay table. Once the shield has broken, the higher pay table applies and 7 red balls are left instead of 8. Take Half does not change the average value of your choice: it cashes out half at your current level and plays the other half on, so it sits exactly between the two columns.
🔢 How to read the results
The Cash or Crash ladder calculator shows how your chance of a crash on the next draw rises at every level. The machine holds 28 balls: 19 green, 8 red and 1 gold. A ball that comes out does not go back in. If the gold ball comes out, you get a shield. The shield saves you from one red ball, and the game then pays more at each level. Every ball that moves you up leaves the machine, and no red ball leaves until one ends the round. At level 8, 20 balls remain and 8 are red, a 40% chance of a crash on the next draw. The Cash or Crash page covers the rules in full.
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The cards compare your options. Take All now is what you get if you cash out at your current level. Next level pays is what you get if the next ball moves you up. One more ball, on average is that figure times the chance the next ball moves you up. Compare it with Take All. At level 8 that is 10x now, 15x next, and 60% × 15x = 9x on average. So playing on costs about 10% of what you have on that draw, not counting the shield.
💡 Key insight
Counted on its own, every step on the normal ladder looks like a losing bet, because the payouts rise more slowly than the red-ball odds. But while the gold ball is still in the machine, each draw also carries a chance of a shield, a free run up the ladder and higher payouts later. Counting that, one more ball is worth more than Take All on levels 1 to 8, and less from level 9. That is why Evolution’s optimal strategy says keep going to level 9, then Take All. That strategy is what gives the game its 99.59% RTP. RTP means return to player, the share of all money bet that is paid back over time. The 99.59% only applies if you follow that strategy, so the Aviator comparison uses it with care.
📊 The maths behind it
At level L, L balls have left the machine and all of them were green or gold, so the chance the next ball is red is 8/(28 − L). The chance of reaching level k from the start is the product of (1 − 8/(28 − L)) for L from 0 to k − 1. The average value of one more ball is (1 − 8/(28 − L)) multiplied by the next level’s payout, with the gold ball counted as a normal step up.
Worked example at $10 using the normal pay table in the tool:
The chance of reaching a level at all: 71.4% for level 1, 15.8% for level 5, 4.1% for level 8, 1.4% for level 10, 0.04% for level 15, and about one in 3.1 million for the top level. Again, this counts gold as a normal step up and leaves out the shield.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It cannot tell you when the gold ball will come. It counts gold as a normal step up. It leaves out the shield and the bigger pay table that come with it, so it makes playing on look worse than it is. The gap is big enough to change the answer. With the gold ball counted, one more ball is worth about 6% more than Take All at level 1, 5% more at level 5 and 2.5% more at level 8, and about 3.5% less at level 9. Take Half sits exactly halfway between Take All and one more ball, and it does not change the average value of any choice. The general point that live studio games run slowly and cheaply is covered elsewhere, and the session cost calculator puts a per-hour price on it.
It also does not model Evolution‘s bigger pay table after the gold ball, or any cash cap on the top payouts.
The bottom line: Use the tool for the red-ball odds and the cash sums. For the decision, follow Evolution’s optimal strategy: with no gold ball yet, keep going to level 9, then Take All. The chance the gold ball comes out is what makes the early draws worth taking.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Is the next ball ever worth more than Take All?
Yes, on levels 1 to 8, while the gold ball is still in the machine. If you leave the gold ball out, one more ball looks worse than Take All at every level. It is about 6% worse at level 1 and 70% worse at level 19. Counting the shield and the higher payouts it can bring, one more ball beats Take All on levels 1 to 8 and loses from level 9. That matches Evolution’s advice to stop at level 9.
Why is the RTP 99.59% when the table shows a loss at every step?
Because the RTP counts the gold ball, the shield it gives, the free step up and the bigger pay table. The table leaves those out. Evolution’s optimal strategy says keep going to level 9 if the gold ball has not come out. If it does come out, the strategy has separate rules for after you get the shield. Played that way, the game returns 99.59% over every possible draw of the 28 balls. We checked this by working through every draw. A player who cashes out well before level 9 gets back less.
Does Take Half change the maths?
No. Take Half cashes out half at your current level and plays the other half on. Its average value is halfway between Take All and playing on, so it cannot be better than the better of the two. It makes the swings smaller. That is a matter of taste. It does not help you win more.
What is the chance of reaching the top level?
About one in 3.1 million from the start, before the gold ball is counted, because you need 20 straight non-red draws from a machine that starts with 8 reds in 28. That is why the top payout on the normal pay table is as big as 18,000x.
👉 Keep going
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