This simulator runs 100 players through the same crash game at once. Each one flat-bets the same stake at the same cash-out target for the number of rounds you choose, against the house edge you set. It is for anyone who wants to see what a session can look like, not only what it costs on average, before deciding how much money to bring to the table and how long to stay.
Bankroll Survival Simulator
Run 100 imaginary players through the same crash-game strategy and watch what happens to their bankrolls. Set your numbers, hit run, and see how many survive, how many profit, and where the maths drags everyone over the long run.
🔢 How to read the results
The chart shows 100 lines, one per simulated player, starting from the same bankroll. The thick line is the median: at every round, half the players are above it and half below. The best and worst lines mark the two extremes of this particular run. Any line that touches zero is a bust, and it stays at zero because a busted player has nothing left to bet.
- ✓ 30+ provably fair crash games: Aviator, JetX, Spaceman & more
- ✓ 10% weekly cashback for every player, paid automatically
- ✓ Crypto only: BTC, ETH, USDT and 9 more coins accepted
- ✓ Extra value: 2x monthly bonus and up to 125 Friday Fun Spins
Below the chart are the summary figures: the share of players who busted, the share who finished in profit, and the average final bankroll. Run the simulation twice with the same settings. The individual lines will be completely different. The bust rate, profit rate and median will move by a point or two at most. That is the difference between variance, which is what each player experiences, and the edge, which is what the group pays.
💡 Key insight
The spread between the best and worst line is variance. The downward slope of the median is the edge. You cannot pick which line you get, and no amount of skill moves you from one to another, but the slope is fixed by the game. That is why flat betting is the sanest way to play and why bankroll management is about surviving the spread, not beating the slope.
📊 The maths behind it
Each round is one weighted coin toss. With probability (1 – edge)/target the player wins and gains stake × (target – 1). Otherwise the stake is lost. The expected change per round is -stake × edge, and the simulator adds up thousands of these tosses per player using a random number generator, the same way the game itself does.
Worked example: €/$100 bankroll, €/$1 stake, 2x target, 3% edge. The win chance per round is 48.5%. After 1,000 rounds the expected bankroll is €/$100 minus €/$30, which is €/$70. A €/$1 bet at 2x has a standard deviation of almost exactly €/$1 per round, and the spread grows with the square root of the round count, so after 1,000 rounds the one-standard-deviation band is about €/$32 either side of €/$70.
The last column ignores busts, so the real profit share at 5,000 rounds is lower still: a €/$100 bankroll cannot absorb an expected €/$150 loss, and most of those players hit zero long before the end.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It models a disciplined player who never changes the stake. Real players raise bets after losses, chase, and skip rounds, and every one of those habits changes the spread without changing the slope. The Martingale simulator covers the most common version of that behaviour. It also stops at the round count you set; the risk of ruin calculator answers the related question of what happens if you keep going until you hit a target or bust.
It cannot tell you which line you will be on. The worst line in the chart happened to one of 100 fair players who did nothing wrong, and the same is true of the best line. The maths of why is set out in the crash gambling maths guide.
The bottom line: Read the median for the price and the spread for the risk. If the worst line at your settings would ruin your week, lower the stake or shorten the session. Nothing you do at the table changes the slope of the median.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Why do some simulated players finish ahead?
Because variance is large compared with the edge over short runs. At €/$1 a bet and 3% edge, 100 rounds have an expected loss of €/$3 and a typical spread of €/$10, so roughly four players in ten finish in profit. Over 5,000 rounds the expected loss is €/$150 against a spread of €/$71, and almost nobody does.
Does a bigger bankroll change the result?
It lowers the bust rate for a given stake and round count, because there is more room to absorb the spread. It does not change the expected loss, which depends only on stake, edge and rounds. A bigger bankroll buys time, not value.
Does the cash-out target matter?
For the average, no: every target has the same expected loss per round. For the shape, yes. Low targets produce many small wins and a tight spread. High targets produce long losing runs and a wide spread, which means more busts and more big winners from the same 100 players.
Why are the results different every time I run it?
Each run draws fresh random numbers, the same way a fair game does. The individual paths change every time. The summary figures settle around the same values because 100 players over hundreds of rounds is enough for the edge to show through.