EtherCrash Predictor and Scripts Tested on 2.25 Million Real Rounds

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🔮 EtherCrash predictors fail: after 5 losing rounds, 2x still came 48.81% of the time

An EtherCrash predictor cannot work, since the rounds before have no effect on the round that comes next. Out of 2,258,947 recreated EtherCrash rounds, 48.73% got to 2x. When 5 rounds in a row had ended under 2x, the next one got to 2x 48.81% of the time. The figure from EtherCrash’s own maths is 48.76%.

A round that ends under 2x is called a red round. Lots of predictor apps claim that after a long red run, a big round is “due”. These are the rounds that actually followed.

The chance stayed the same after a red run. The small gaps between the rows are normal random wobble. They go both ways and are too small to bet on.

Waiting for a “due” 10x does not help

Waiting a long time without a 10x did not bring one closer. The rate after a long wait was slightly lower, and that is just chance. Streaks can seem to mean something when they do not, and our guide to crash game patterns shows why.

The EtherCrash hash chain means the next round cannot be predicted

An EtherCrash round is made from a hash, which is a long code built with the SHA-256 formula. You get the hash for a game by taking the next game’s hash, as text, and running SHA-256 on it. That means the chain runs in reverse, so each new round uses a hash that was made before the one for the round just played.

The EtherCrash hash chain makes prediction impossible, because finding the next hash would mean running SHA-256 backwards. No computer can do that. Each hash is shown after its round ends, and you can check that it links to the previous round.

🤖 All six EtherCrash scripts lost money on real past rounds

Each EtherCrash script we tested ended up down overall when run on real past EtherCrash rounds. We cut the real history into 451 sessions, each 5,000 rounds long, and ran six betting scripts on every session. The 1.1x grind did best with a payback of 97.93%, but it still lost 466,455 ethos in total.

This is the test that counts if you are looking for an EtherCrash strategy or script to beat the edge. We used rounds that really happened, not made-up random ones.

The six scripts

A session “ended up” if it closed with over 10,000 ethos. On that column, Martingale 2x and Wait 5 seem strong. The table after it gives the total over all 451 sessions and the middle session.

Every figure is in ethos. The middle session is the median, so half the sessions finished higher and half finished lower. All the totals are losses. For every 100 ethos bet, this is what each script paid back:

Martingale wins small, then loses big

Martingale doubles your stake after a loss. As soon as you win, you get all those losses back with 1 ethos on top, and the stake goes back to 1 ethos. This tends to work, so Martingale 2x ended up in 65.6% of sessions.

Long losing runs are what break it. The bet doubles with every loss, so it gets big very quickly. The longest run under 2x in our recreated rounds was 20. The script was out in 34.4% of sessions, because the next bet needed more than the balance held.

The maths is explained in our Martingale guide for crash games. To see it play out with your own numbers, try the Martingale simulator.

Sitting out until 5 red rounds pass only cuts how often you bet

On EtherCrash, the wait-5 script only cut how often it bet, and that is why it went bust in just 2.0% of sessions. Waiting did not help it win.

The round after 5 under 2x got to 2x 48.81% of the time, no different from any other round. The busts that wait-5 did have were large. It had the worst payback of the six scripts, at 93.58%.

📊 EtherCrash statistics: how 2,258,947 real rounds compare with the theory

The real EtherCrash results match the maths EtherCrash publishes. Over 2,258,947 EtherCrash rounds, 48.73% got to 2x when the theory says 48.76%, and 0.989% crashed at 0x when the theory says 0.990%. A 2x cash out on every round paid back 97.46%.

Every band is close to what the formula predicts. There were 2,185 rounds of 1,000x or more, against 2,192 expected. There were 214 rounds of 10,000x or more, against 219 expected.

We also ran a standard fit test (chi-square) over these 13 bands. The score was 8.8 on 12 degrees of freedom, which gives p of about 0.72. That is within normal chance and fits the published maths.

The biggest EtherCrash rounds

We checked all six of these against EtherCrash’s live game pages. Every one matched.

The longest streaks we found in the recreated rounds

The run of 20 rounds under 2x finished at game #10,290,219 on 28 March 2025. That is long enough to bust a Martingale script starting from 10,000 ethos with a 1 ethos bet. Martingale 2x on those settings is out after 13 losses in a row. The next bet would be 8,192 ethos, which is more than the balance has left.

⚖️ Do EtherCrash results match its published formula? Yes, after the first four rounds

On fairness, the 2,258,947 EtherCrash rounds we recreated fit EtherCrash’s published formula and the expected odds. The hash chain from game #12,258,950 walked back exactly to game #10,000,001. All of about 480 rounds we compared with EtherCrash’s live game pages matched, from game #10,000,004 onward.

This test answers one question: do the EtherCrash results match the published formula? It does not cover the rest of the business. In the rounds we checked, the results fit a house edge of about 2%, as EtherCrash’s FAQ says.

There are two things we could not explain or check. Both are set out in full in the method section below:

We only tested whether EtherCrash is fair here. This is not a full review of the site. For a general look at how seeds and hash chains work, read our guide to provably fair crash games.

🔍 The steps we took to rebuild the EtherCrash history

We rebuilt the EtherCrash history from one public hash chain and one Ethereum block hash, then ran EtherCrash’s own formula on every hash. Anyone can repeat it. The work covers 2,258,947 rounds, from 6 January 2025 up to 3 October 2026.

EtherCrash’s current game history starts at game #10,000,000 on 6 January 2025. Lower game numbers are not on the site. EtherCrash plays about 3,400 to 3,550 rounds a day and is still running every day.

This short Node.js script works out EtherCrash results from a game hash. It starts with the hash of game #12,258,950 and walks back 5 games. It prints 8.26x, 1.15x, 11.94x, 1.04x and 2.99x, for games #12,258,950 down to #12,258,946. Swap in any other game hash from EtherCrash’s game page, and change the 5 to walk back further.

const crypto = require('crypto');

const seed = '0xa9463d60b9e6163a3a37c76b225e1a02c97a1bdda4a9a4409d2212d95a334de9';
let hash = 'cd0b3fa0dae5fca9eed4edcfaefe89da5177ff18c3367b11d26501c353edc910';

function result(gameHash) {
  const hmac = crypto.createHmac('sha256', gameHash).update(seed).digest('hex');
  if (BigInt('0x' + hmac) % 101n === 0n) return 0;
  const h = parseInt(hmac.slice(0, 13), 16);
  const e = 2 ** 52;
  return Math.max(100, Math.floor((100 * e - h) / (e - h) * 0.99)) / 100;
}

for (let i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
  console.log(result(hash).toFixed(2) + 'x');
  hash = crypto.createHash('sha256').update(hash).digest('hex');
}

Sources

Data checked 3 October 2026.

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❓ Frequently asked questions

Is there an EtherCrash script that beats the house edge?

No, no EtherCrash script we tested beat the house edge. We ran six scripts over 451 real sessions, and all of them lost money in total, with payback between 93.58% and 97.93%. A script can change how often you win, but each one paid back less than it bet.

Is it possible to see the next EtherCrash hash in advance?

No, nobody can see the next EtherCrash hash, because each one is shown only once its round is over. Working it out early would mean running SHA-256 backwards, and that cannot be done. Predictor apps cannot see it either.

What was the largest EtherCrash multiplier we found?

The largest EtherCrash multiplier we found was 5,424,790.70x, in game #10,186,688 on 27 February 2025. So far in 2026, the top one was 1,038,128.80x, in game #12,257,095 on 3 October 2026.

How big is EtherCrash’s house edge?

The EtherCrash house edge is about 2%, which means about 98% comes back to players over time. In 1 round out of 101 the game crashes at 0x, and the 0.99 in the formula covers the rest. Over the real rounds, a 2x cash out every time paid back 97.46%. The EtherCrash FAQ also says it gives players a small social bonus, and it says this brings the edge closer to 1.45%.

How many EtherCrash rounds are played each day?

About 3,400 to 3,550 rounds a day. EtherCrash is still running every day.