This simulator plays the Martingale for you: double the bet after every loss, return to the base bet after a win, cash out at a fixed target. Set the base bet, bankroll, target, edge, table limit and round count, watch one player’s bankroll move round by round, then read the verdict from a batch of up to 1,500 players running the same plan. It is for anyone who has been told the Martingale cannot lose.
Martingale Crash Game Simulator
Set up a doubling (Martingale) strategy and see what the house edge does to it across thousands of rounds. A demonstration of expected outcomes, not betting advice.
Your strategy
One simulated player, round by round
Press Run simulation for another player. Short-term variance is real, but the long-term trend is not.
The odds behind your settings
Martingale bet progression
| Loss # | Bet amount | Cumulative loss | Required win to recover | Bankroll remaining |
|---|
This simulator uses the standard crash game distribution. Real results will vary by game and operator. The house edge means long-term expected losses regardless of strategy.
🔢 How to read the results
The chart shows one player. The typical shape is a long, slow climb in steps of one base bet, interrupted by a sudden drop when a losing run reaches the point where the next double is either above the table limit or above what is left in the bankroll. If the drop reaches zero, that player is out. The panel next to the chart shows the current losing run and the bet the plan wants to place next.
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The batch verdict is the figure that matters. It reports the share of players who finished down, the share who busted outright, and the average result across all of them. The losing-streak panel gives the chance of each run length at your target, and the progression table shows every doubling step with two markers: the step where the bet limit stops you, and the step where the bankroll does. Whichever comes first is the point where the plan ends.
💡 Key insight
The Martingale converts many small wins into rare large losses. It does not change the average. Every bet it places has an EV of -stake × edge, so the average result per round across 1,500 players is the same as flat betting the same total stake. The full argument, with the maths for each variant, is in the Martingale guide.
📊 The maths behind it
After k straight losses the next bet is base × 2^k, and the total committed to the run so far is base × (2^k – 1). A winning round at a 2x target returns the whole run plus one base bet. The chance of k straight losses at a target M and edge e is (1 – (1 – e)/M)^k, which at 2x and 3% is 0.515^k.
Worked example: €/$1 base bet, €/$100 bankroll, 2x target, 3% edge, €/$100 bet limit:
The bankroll runs out first. After six losses the plan wants €/$64 and only €/$37 remains, so a six-loss run costs €/$63 and ends the plan. Six losses at 2x happen once in every 54 runs. Each completed run wins €/$1, so the expected sequence is about 53 wins of €/$1 followed by one loss of €/$63. That is a net loss, and it is the same net loss the edge would have taken from €/$1 flat bets over the same total stake.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It cannot tell you when the losing run will arrive, only that it will. A player can run the plan for an evening and finish up €/$40, which is why the method survives. The streak calculator gives the odds of the run at any threshold. It also does not model per-game maximum bets, which vary by operator and are often lower than the limit you type; the real cap is whatever the game’s bet field refuses.
It says nothing about the alternatives being better. The anti-Martingale, D’Alembert and Fibonacci progressions change the size and timing of the losses again, and none of them touches the average. The bankroll simulator shows what flat betting the same money looks like for comparison.
The bottom line: The Martingale in a crash game is a plan for losing €/$63 once in every 54 attempts to win €/$1. The table limit and the bankroll decide where it breaks, and the edge decides that it does. If you want to see the plan work, run it for 100 rounds. If you want to see it fail, run it for 1,000.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Does the Martingale beat the house edge?
No. Every bet it places has the same negative expected value as any other bet of that size, and adding bets together cannot turn a negative average positive. What it does is rearrange the outcomes: many small wins, then one loss the size of the whole run. Over enough rounds the average lands on -stake × edge.
Why do most simulated players finish ahead while the average is negative?
Because the losses are rare and large. In a 200-round batch most players never meet the six-loss run and finish a few units up. The ones who do meet it lose 63 units at once. The minority’s losses outweigh the majority’s wins, and the average comes out at the edge.
Does a lower target make the Martingale safer?
It makes losing runs shorter and the bust rarer per run, but each win is smaller, so the plan needs more runs to earn the same amount and the edge gets more rounds to work. At 1.5x the doubling still climbs, the run still ends at the bankroll, and the average is still -stake × edge.
What bet limit should I enter?
The maximum bet the game will accept at your operator, which is usually shown in the bet field or the game’s info panel. If you do not know it, leave the default and watch the bankroll marker instead: with a base bet at 1% of the bankroll, the bankroll runs out at the seventh bet regardless of the limit.