This calculator prices every decision on the Cash or Crash ladder. Pick the rung you have reached and your stake, and it shows the chance the next ball is red, what Take All pays now, what the next rung pays, and what one more ball is worth in expectation, plus your chance of reaching any level and the full 20-rung base table. It is for anyone playing Evolution’s live crash game who wants numbers behind the buttons.
Cash or Crash Ladder Calculator: What the Next Ball Is Worth
Pick the rung you are standing on and see the real odds of the next ball, what Take All pays now, and what one more draw is worth in expectation. The maths uses the 28-ball machine (19 green, 8 red, 1 gold) drawn without replacement, exactly as the game does.
| Level | Take All pays | Next ball red | Reach from here | One more ball, in expectation | vs banking now |
|---|
"One more ball, in expectation" is the chance the next ball advances you (green or gold, out of the balls still in the machine) multiplied by the next rung's base payout. It counts the gold ball as a plain advance and ignores the value of the shield and the upgraded paytable that follows it, so it slightly understates the case for continuing. The table uses the base paytable; once the shield has broken, the higher column applies and 7 red balls remain instead of 8. Take Half does not change the expected value of a decision: it banks half at the current rung and plays the other half on, so it sits exactly between the two columns.
🔢 How to read the results
The machine holds 28 balls: 19 green, 8 red and 1 gold, drawn without replacement. Every ball that advances you leaves the machine, and no red ball does until one ends the round, so the share of reds among what is left rises with every rung. At rung 8, 20 balls remain and 8 are red, a 40% chance of a crash on the next draw. The Cash or Crash page covers the rules in full.
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The three cards compare your options. Take All is the current rung’s payout. Next rung is what you get if the ball advances you. One more ball is the second figure multiplied by the chance of advancing, and it is the number to compare with Take All. At rung 8 that is 10x now, 15x next, and 60% × 15x = 9x in expectation, so continuing costs about 10% of your position on that draw.
💡 Key insight
Every step on the base ladder has a negative expectation before the gold ball is counted, because the payouts rise more slowly than the red-ball odds. The advertised 99.59% RTP does not live in the ladder table. It lives in the gold ball: a shield that absorbs one red, a free advance, and an upgraded paytable. A player who never draws gold is paying at every rung, which is why the Aviator comparison treats the headline RTP with care.
📊 The maths behind it
At rung L, L balls have left the machine and all of them were green or gold, so the chance the next ball is red is 8/(28 – L). The chance of reaching rung k from the start is the product of (1 – 8/(28 – L)) for L from 0 to k – 1. The expected value of one more ball is (1 – 8/(28 – L)) multiplied by the next rung’s payout, with the gold ball counted as a plain advance.
Worked example at €/$10 using the base paytable in the tool:
The chance of reaching a rung at all: 71.4% for rung 1, 15.8% for rung 5, 4.1% for rung 8, 1.4% for rung 10, 0.04% for rung 15, and about one in 3.1 million for the top rung, again treating gold as a plain advance and ignoring the shield.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It cannot tell you when the gold ball will come. It counts gold as an ordinary advance and ignores the shield and the upgraded paytable that follow it, so it slightly understates the case for continuing, especially early in a round when the gold ball has the most rungs left to protect. Take Half sits exactly halfway between the two columns and does not change the expected value of any decision. The general point that live studio games run slowly and cheaply is covered elsewhere, and the session cost calculator puts a per-hour price on it.
It also does not model Evolution‘s post-gold paytable or any cash cap on the top payouts.
The bottom line: Before the gold ball, one more ball is worth less than Take All on every rung of the base ladder, and the gap widens as you climb. The game’s value is in what you do after the gold ball appears. If you have not seen it, you are paying for every draw.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Is the next ball ever worth more than Take All?
Not on the base ladder. At every rung from 1 to 19, the next rung’s payout multiplied by the chance of advancing is below the current payout, by roughly 6% at rung 1 and 70% at rung 19. After a gold ball, the shield changes the calculation, because the next red does not end the round.
Why is the RTP 99.59% if every step is negative?
Because the RTP counts the gold ball, the shield it gives, the free advance and the upgraded paytable. Those features are worth enough, averaged across all rounds, to lift the return to 99.59%. The base ladder on its own returns less, and a player who cashes out before any gold ball appears is playing the base ladder.
Does Take Half change the maths?
No. Take Half banks half your position at the current rung and plays the other half on. Its expected value is the average of Take All and Continue, so it cannot be better than the better of the two. It reduces the swing, which is a preference, not an edge.
What is the chance of reaching the top rung?
About one in 3.1 million from the start, before the gold ball is counted, because you need 20 straight non-red draws from a machine that starts with 8 reds in 28. The 18,000x top payout on the base table is priced accordingly.