This calculator shows the real odds behind every slot in Stake’s Plinko. Pick 8 to 16 rows, Low, Medium or High risk, and your bet. It returns each slot’s chance, how much each slot adds to the 99% RTP, how often a drop pays your bet back, how rare the top multiplier is, and what 100 drops cost on average.
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Uses Stake's Plinko pay tables (Stake Originals). RTP is the share of all bets a game pays back over time. Here it is about 99%. Pick your rows, risk and bet.
pays your bet back or more pays less than your bet
| Slot (left to right) | Chance | Share of RTP |
|---|
At each row the ball has an even chance of going left or right. That is why it lands in the middle slots most often and the edge slots almost never. Your casino may run a different Plinko with different pay tables. Check the game info panel.
🔢 A slot’s chance is its share of all possible paths
Each slot’s chance equals the number of paths that end in that slot, divided by every path the ball could take. At every row the ball goes left or right with equal odds, so each extra row doubles the number of paths. To get a slot’s chance, count the paths into that slot and divide by the total.
On a 16 row board there are 65,536 paths. Only one of them runs all the way down the left edge, so the left 1,000x slot has a chance of 1 in 65,536, or 0.0015%. The middle slot has 12,870 paths into it, which is 19.6% of all drops.
The top slot sits on both edges, so the tool counts both sides when it gives you the “1 in N” figure. One edge on its own is half as likely.
📊 Every one of the 27 tables pays back about 99%
All 27 row and risk settings on Stake’s Plinko return between 98.91% and 99.16%, so no setting is better value than another. We worked out the RTP of each table from its multipliers and the path counts above.
The “Adds to RTP” column in the tool shows where that 99% comes from. On 16 rows High, the two 2x slots add 13.33% each and the two 4x slots add 11.11% each, while the five 0.2x slots in the middle add only 15.8% between them, even though 79% of drops land there.
🎯 Risk level decides how often you get your bet back
Higher risk means you get your bet back less often, in exchange for bigger edge slots. On 16 rows, Low pays at least your bet on 80.4% of drops, Medium on 45.4% and High on 21.0%. The RTP stays at about 99% in all three.
💡 Key point
On 16 rows High, about 4 drops in every 5 pay 0.2x, so a $1 bet comes back as 20 cents. Most of the 99% comes from the 2x and 4x slots near the middle, which supply about half of it, plus rare hits on 9x and above. Over a short session you will usually be down, and how far depends on how often the 2x, 4x and bigger slots show up.
💸 100 drops cost about one bet on average
The average cost of 100 drops is 100 × your bet × (1 − RTP), which on Stake’s tables comes to about one bet. At $1 a drop on 16 rows High the tool shows $1.02. At $5 a drop on 8 rows Medium, where the RTP is 98.91%, it is 100 × $5 × 0.01094, or about $5.47.
This is an average over a very large number of drops. Any single run of 100 drops can end far above or far below it, and High risk swings the most. The session cost calculator does the same sum for crash games. Our Aviator vs Plinko comparison sets Plinko next to a crash game.
⚠️ The calculator cannot predict a drop
The tool gives odds, not results. Each drop is set by a provably fair seed before the ball falls, and no pattern in past drops changes the next one. Our check on whether Plinko is rigged covers how to verify a drop yourself.
Want to play Plinko? You can find it at Crashino →
The tables are Stake’s only. BGaming, Spribe and Hacksaw Gaming each make their own Plinko with different multipliers, and Hacksaw lets each casino pick from several RTP settings. The Plinko game page compares the three. Stake has also added an Expert risk level that pays up to 10,000x on 16 rows. We could not confirm its full tables from two sources, so Expert is left out.
The bottom line: Pick rows and risk for the kind of ride you want, not for value. Every Stake Plinko setting costs about 1% of what you bet. Low risk gives you your bet back on most drops; High risk gives you a long run of 0.2x drops and a small chance of a big one.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Which Plinko setting has the best odds?
None in a way that matters. Stake’s 27 tables all return between 98.91% and 99.16%. 11 rows on High is the highest at 99.16%, a gap of a quarter of a cent per dollar over the lowest.
How rare is the 1,000x slot?
On 16 rows High the 1,000x slot sits on both edges, and the ball reaches one of them about once in 32,768 drops. At 1,000 drops a day that is roughly once a month on average, and many players will go much longer.
Why do I lose on most drops at 99% RTP?
Because the RTP comes from the slots that pay 2x and up, and they catch only a small share of drops. On High risk most drops land in the 0.2x to 0.3x slots near the middle. The return only gets close to 99% over tens of thousands of drops.
🔗 Related CrashEdge pages
- Plinko game guide: the three studio versions and their RTPs
- Is Plinko rigged?: fairness, fake apps and configurable RTP
- Plinko versus Mines: two instant games side by side
- Mines calculator: reveal by reveal odds for Mines
- Crash gambling maths: house edge and expected loss explained
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