This calculator answers one question: at a given house edge, what is your real chance of a crash game reaching the multiplier you want, and what does one bet at that target cost you on average? It is for anyone who plays Aviator, JetX, Spaceman or their relatives and wants the number behind the button before pressing it. Set the edge, the target and the stake, then read the results below.
Crash Game Probability Calculator
See the real odds, expected value, and the house's cut on any crash game bet.
Aviator/Spaceman = 3%, JetX = varies by casino, Stake Crash = 1%
| Rounds | Total Wagered | Expected Loss | You Keep |
|---|
🔢 How to read the results
The first output is your chance of reaching the target. At the 3% edge that Aviator runs on, a 2x target reads 48.5%, not 50%. The missing 1.5 points are the edge, taken once per round. The second output is the expected return per bet: stake, multiplied by the target, multiplied by that chance. At €/$10 and 2x it is €/$9.70.
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The line to watch is EV per bet. It is always the stake multiplied by the edge, with a minus sign in front. Change the target from 1.2x to 100x and it does not move. Your chance of winning changes, the size of the win changes, and the average cost of the bet stays where it was. The house take repeats that figure as a percentage, and the table at the bottom multiplies it over 100 to 10,000 rounds, so you can see what a session, a month or a year of play costs at your stake.
💡 Key insight
There is no target that beats the edge. Cashing out at 1.10x feels safe and cashing out at 50x feels bold, and both hand the operator the same 3 cents per euro or dollar staked over time. The target sets your variance and nothing else. The long version of that argument is in the crash gambling maths guide and the article on whether crash games can be beaten.
📊 The maths behind it
A fair crash game reaches a multiplier M with probability 1/M: half of rounds reach 2x, a tenth reach 10x. A real game sells you that outcome at a discount. The chance of reaching M is (1 – edge)/M. Expected return is bet × M × (1 – edge)/M, which simplifies to bet × (1 – edge). EV is expected return minus the bet, so EV = -bet × edge. The M cancels out, which is the whole point of the tool.
Worked example at a 3% edge with a €/$10 bet:
The expected loss table is the last column multiplied by the round count. At €/$10 a bet and 3%, 100 rounds cost €/$30 on average, 1,000 rounds cost €/$300 and 10,000 rounds cost €/$3,000.
🎯 What it cannot tell you
It gives averages, not sessions. Over 100 rounds at €/$10 the expected loss is €/$30, but the spread of real outcomes around that figure is several hundred euros or dollars wide, and a large minority of 100-round sessions finish ahead. The bankroll survival simulator shows that spread. It also assumes the edge you typed is the edge you are playing. Aviator publishes 97% RTP; JetX and Spaceman ship at operator-configurable RTPs, so read the in-game info panel before you trust the input.
It says nothing about the next round. The 48.5% at 2x is the same after five early crashes as after five high ones. If a run of low multipliers is what brought you here, the streak probability calculator is the tool for that question.
The bottom line: Use this calculator to price a bet, not to pick a target. Every target costs the same per round. Pick the one whose win rate and win size you can sit through, and set the stake from the expected-loss table, not from the multiplier column.
❓ Frequently asked questions
Why is my chance at 2x below 50%?
Because the game keeps the edge before it pays. At 97% RTP the chance of reaching 2x is 0.97 divided by 2, which is 48.5%. At 99% RTP (Stake Crash, BC.Game Crash, bustabit) it is 49.5%. Only a game with no edge at all would give you 50%.
Does a higher target have a worse EV?
No. EV per bet is the stake multiplied by the edge, whatever the target. A 100x target wins far less often and pays far more when it does, and those two effects cancel exactly. Higher targets give you higher variance, not a higher or lower cost.
What house edge should I enter for Aviator?
3%. Spribe publishes Aviator at 97% RTP on every operator. For JetX enter 3% as the typical figure, but check the operator, because SmartSoft allows settings from 96.2% to 98.9%. Spaceman is 3.5% by default and 5% on some operators.
Can I use this for Mines or Chicken Road?
Not directly. Those games take the edge per step, not per round, and the multiplier ladder is fixed by the number of mines or hazards. Use the dedicated Mines calculator and Chicken Road calculator in the tools section, which apply the right formula.